AL Central: Slowly but surely, Royals making strides
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here's a trivia question sure to stump your buddies: name the team that currently leads the majors in team batting average.
And no, it's not the Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers. Give up? It's ok, that team would be the perennial doormat Kansas City Royals (34-45). And yes, we are in July, not April. As a team, the Royals are hitting a solid .284 and have compiled 777 hits, both of which are tops in the majors. But you wouldn't know it by looking at the win-loss column.
Kansas City entered Friday nine games behind division-leader Minnesota. Beginning Friday night in Anaheim, the Royals will embark on a nine-game road swing leading up to the All-Star break. Following this weekend's three-game set with the Angels, they'll travel to Seattle and Chicago to take on the Mariners and White Sox, respectively.
Obviously, things can change in a hurry by the time that trip is finished -- Kansas City's 16-24 road mark isn't exactly promising. Still, on a larger scale, things are starting to look up for this long dormant organization, which will host the 2012 All-Star game.
Manager Ned Yost said the key is the team's overall approach at the plate.
"They've got a plan and they go up there and try to execute their plan and they're really good with plate discipline," he said earlier this week. "If a pitcher is going to give us the opportunity to walk, they're going to take that opportunity. They do a good job of that day-in and day-out."
Left fielder Scott Podsednik feels it's as simple as the offense playing up to expectations."When they put this club together in Spring Training, offensively we felt like we had a pretty good attack and right now we're showing that," he said.
Outfielder David DeJesus has been the poster child, hitting a robust .410 in June, while ranking second in the AL in hits (41) and RBI (16) for the month. Of course, the hope in Kansas City is that the offensive attack carries over to next year and beyond. And for someone like DeJesus, who is putting up career numbers in the final year of a five-year deal, that could potentially mean a change of scenery in the coming weeks as the July 31 trade deadline heats up.
Ditto for designated hitter Jose Guillen, who is also in the final year of his contract and has been swinging a hot bat of late. But to unload Guillen, the Royals would almost certainly have to eat a large chunk of the $6.2 million remaining on his $12 million salary for this season. General manager Dayton Moore is trying to set the team up for long-term success, and any move in the next month would reflect that, despite there being three months left to play in this season.
According to the Kansas City Star, the Red Sox have expressed interest in infielder Mike Aviles and utilityman Willie Bloomquist as potential replacements for injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Likewise, 34-year-old Podsednik (.293) could land with a team seeking outfield help.
Reliever Kyle Farnsworth has enjoyed a rebound season (2.14 ERA, 25 K, 9 BB), though his $4.5 million price tag this year could be a dealbreaker. That's the same linchpin surrounding injured starter Gil Meche, who is on the books for a team-high $12 million in 2010 and 2011.
Those are the names you're likely to hear in various trade scenarios over the next month. And although the Royals have proven capable at the plate so far this season, Moore will try to move as many of those names as possible, in the interest of next year and beyond.
TIGERS AIMING TO BE BUYERS AT TRADE DEADLINE
It's one of those fickle conundrums for the GM of a meddling baseball team as the trade deadline nears: buyer or seller? Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski finds himself in such a predicament, with his team seemingly underachieving, at 41-36. Still, the Tigers are only one game out of first place -- although they are also the same margin away from being a third-place team.
With Detroit, there is an interesting mix of veterans and young players. Back in the offseason, veterans Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were unloaded in a three-team deal that returned payroll flexibility, and youth. But shortly after, the front office went out and signed 36-year-old outfielder Johnny Damon, and paid him more than Granderson.
All in all, the message from Dombrowski was clear: the Tigers are expected to contend this season, and hopefully, beyond. Depending on how things go over the next few weeks, Dombrowski will either reinforce that message, or move in a different direction.
SOX' GM WILLIAMS WEIGHING OPTIONS
Chicago general manager Kenny Williams usually finds himself in the same boat as Detroit GM Dombrowski, sitting in wait-and-see mode while the White Sox toil around .500 in July. But this time around, the pieces appear to be falling in place a bit earlier than usual. The evidence is in the White Sox' recent 11-game win streak, their longest since 1961.
But for Williams, the question is always, "How can this team be better?"
The pitching has been on point. Since June 9, the team has a combined 2.61 ERA. Closer Bobby Jenks has had his shaky moments, though he has converted 17 of 18 save opportunities. The bullpen in general has been solid for most of the season, ranking fifth in the American League with a 3.85 ERA. If anything, the team could use another left-handed stick in the middle of the lineup to drive in runs.
Multiple reports have linked Washington Nationals first baseman Adam Dunn to Williams and the White Sox. The 30-year-old Dunn, who is in the final year of his two-year, $20 million deal, has been a consistent run producer throughout his career. But Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo won't part with Dunn for pennies.
"For us to move him will be very painful, and it will probably be very, very painful for the team that wants to acquire him," Rizzo told the team's website. "I mean, we are always listening. We are certainly not in a position with our history and our record this year and our record in the past that we have to turn a blind eye to any type of constructive idea or offer.
"We are certainly not shocked at Adam Dunn. He is one of the top five or 10 best offensive players in the game, a constant 40 home run guy, 100 RBIs, .400 on-base type of guy and, you know, he's 29 or 30 years old and he has been a centerpiece of our clubhouse for the last two years. He's a great guy."
YOUNG TRIBE SHOWING LIFE
Although still cemented in last place in the division, the Cleveland Indians (31-47) have stumbled onto a discovery this week: winning.
The Indians have won a season-high five straight, including the first four games of their current seven-game homestand. Next up is a weekend series with the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field.
Most importantly, the Indians are getting some very big contributions from key players. Recently recalled first baseman Matt LaPorta has homered in three straight games. Designated hitter Travis Hafner is hitting .367 with three homers, three doubles and seven RBI over the past nine games, crediting a recent adjustment to his swing. Justin Masterson tossed 8 1/3 innings of one- run ball against Toronto on Thursday, and he has held the opposition to two runs or less in four of his last six starts. Chris Perez (2.90 ERA, 7-for-10 SV) has emerged as a viable closer option if the front office is able to move Kerry Wood (6.62 ERA, 8-for-11 SV).
On the injury front, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera is making progress from a fractured forearm suffered in a May 17 collision. He could return soon after the All-Star break. All in all, Cleveland's Fun Bunch has put its youthful energy on full display, and the result has been a few more notches in the win column.
TWINS BULLPEN PROVES TO BE MORTAL
When the Twins lost four-time All-Star closer and single-season saves leader (47) Joe Nathan for the season before it even started, naturally, the bullpen figured to be a huge question mark. But up until now, those questions have been answered rather convincingly by the Twins' relief corps.
Minnesota's bullpen entered Thursday with an American League-best 2.79 ERA. But the 'pen finally came back down to Earth Thursday night when closer Jon Rauch spoiled a ninth inning lead, and the Tampa Bay Rays won 5-4 in the 10th when Willy Aybar hit an RBI single off Matt Guerrier. For Rauch, it was hit second straight blown save, and fourth in 21 chances this season.
"Our bullpen's been very good," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told the Star Tribune. "Tonight we had a couple that didn't get it done, but that's the way it goes sometimes."
Translation: Gardenhire won't be making any drastic changes to the back end of the 'pen based on Rauch's recent struggles. After all, the Twins still lead the AL Central despite losses in seven of their past 10 games, and the bullpen has been a major reason for that.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.