Big-hitting Blue Jays close out set at Tampa
Baseball Betting Lines
09/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays displayed their trademark power in knocking off the playoff-hopeful Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, but the heavy- hitting club figures to face a more stern challenge in tonight's finale of this three-game series between the American League East inhabitants from Tropicana Field.
Toronto entered last night's contest leading all of baseball with 198 home runs, then swatted three more in a 13-5 rout of the Rays to even this set. Slugger Jose Bautista belted his major league-best 43rd round-tripper of the season and knocked in four runs to help the Blue Jays put an end to a two-game skid.
Bautista's homer, a three-run shot off reliever Lance Cormier, capped a sixth- inning eruption in which Toronto scored 10 times and sent 14 men to the plate. Aaron Hill added a two-run homer during the big frame, while Vernon Wells, Adam Lind and John Buck came through with consecutive doubles as the Jays overcame a 3-1 deficit heading into the inning.
"Any time you can explode, it's funny how the momentum side of baseball kicks in," Hill told MLB.com afterward. "It was nice to take advantage of some things and get the ball rolling a little bit."
John McDonald had a solo homer earlier in the game and scored three times for Toronto, which received three hits and a pair of RBI from Dewayne Wise as well.
The offensive outburst enabled Jays starter Ricky Romero (11-8) to garner his 11th victory of the season despite giving up five runs (four earned) and issuing five walks in 7 1/3 innings.
Toronto hopes it can duplicate last night's performance at the plate when the club takes its swings this evening against Rays All-Star David Price, who's been a real nemesis for the Blue Jays during his somewhat brief tenure in the big leagues. The 2007 No. 1 overall draft pick boasts a 5-0 record and an excellent 2.09 earned run average over six career starts against tonight's opponent, with three of those wins having taken place this season.
Price has been sensational in all three of those matchups, having yielded only three runs -- one earned -- and 17 hits over a combined 23 innings of work. The best of the bunch occurred at Tropicana Field on April 25, when the talented lefty allowed four hits and fanned nine in registering the only shutout of his career to date.
The 25-year-old has compiled a strong 15-6 record and a 3.01 ERA in 25 assignments for the year, though he hasn't been at his best of late. Price has posted a 4.26 ERA during a current three-start winless stretch and was touched for three runs and 10 hits through seven innings in a home loss to Boston last Friday.
The defeat was only Price's second at Tropicana Field this season, with the former Vanderbilt star having gone 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in his 12 home starts.
Tampa Bay has also fared rather well when hosting the Blue Jays in recent years, as Wednesday's loss was only the Rays' sixth in their last 28 home encounters with Toronto. The Jays are 3-5 at Tropicana Field this season, with the teams having split 14 overall meetings thus far in 2010.
The Rays will be counting on Price to pitch more effectively than teammate Jeff Niemann (10-5) did near the end of his start last night. After permitting just one run over the first five innings, the towering right-hander allowed six straight batters to reach base to begin the sixth before being removed. He was charged with seven runs on seven hits for the evening.
"All of sudden, I couldn't get anybody out," said Niemann following the loss.
Dan Johnson and Reid Brignac each knocked in a pair of runs in Tuesday's loss, which halted a three-game win streak for Tampa. The Rays did fall out of a first-place tie with the New York Yankees in the AL East standings after the Bronx Bombers bested Oakland last night.
Shaun Marcum will try to deal the Rays a second straight defeat when he opposes Price tonight. The steady right-hander comes into this tilt off his third straight quality start, a no-decision against Detroit on Friday in which he gave up just one run in six innings.
Two appearances earlier, Marcum went the distance on a one-hitter in a 3-1 verdict over Oakland on August 16, then held Boston to three runs and just four hits in seven innings of a hard-luck shutout loss at Fenway Park six days later.
The Tommy John surgery survivor owns a solid 7-4 record with a 3.96 ERA in 14 road starts this year, but was tagged for seven runs and 10 hits over a poor four-inning stint in a June 9 loss to the Rays at the Trop. He's 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA in six lifetime games (five starts) against Tampa Bay, with both setbacks having come this season.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
To visit this online sports book got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.